Toronto Mayoral Race Tightens as Bradford Gains Ground on Chow Ahead of October Election
A new poll from Mainstreet Research reveals that the Toronto mayoral race between incumbent Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford is far more competitive than many anticipated, with the gap between the two leading candidates narrowing significantly in recent months.
Chow Holds a Slim Lead
According to the latest survey, nearly 38 percent of decided respondents said they would vote for Brad Bradford if the election were held today, placing him just six points behind Chow’s 43.6 percent. This marks a dramatic shift from a previous poll conducted in February, when Bradford registered at only 17 percent support. The earlier survey also included former mayor John Tory before it was confirmed he would not be entering the race.
Chow, who was elected Toronto’s 66th mayor in 2023, still maintains a lead, but the numbers suggest her re-election is far from guaranteed. When respondents who initially said they would not vote for either leading candidate were asked to choose in a forced two-way race, Bradford received 51.9 percent support compared to Chow’s 48.1 percent — a finding that underscores the vulnerability of the incumbent’s position.
Voter Sentiment Points to an Uphill Battle for Chow
Several indicators in the poll point to an uncertain path to re-election for the current mayor. A full 60 percent of respondents said the city of Toronto is on the wrong path, while Chow’s approval rating sits at 41 percent against a 55 percent disapproval rating. These figures paint a picture of a electorate that is restless and open to change.
Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, noted that the race “will be more interesting than expected.” He pointed out that while Chow leads by almost six percent and has a ceiling of nearly 49 percent, almost an equal number of voters say they definitely will not vote for her. “Bradford currently has a lower cap, with only 45 percent saying they would definitely vote for him or thinking about it, but only a quarter of residents say they definitely won’t vote for him,” Maggi said. “This difference may change over time, but it should worry the mayor.”
Top Issues Driving the Race
The survey identified the key concerns shaping voter decisions. Traffic and congestion topped the list at 27.3 percent, followed by affordability at 25.8 percent, and crime and safety at 23.5 percent. These issues reflect the day-to-day challenges facing Toronto residents and are likely to dominate the campaign conversation in the weeks ahead.
Bradford Positions Himself as the Change Candidate
Bradford, a city councilor from Toronto’s East End, has centered his campaign on addressing those very issues. Speaking previously to the National Post about his campaign priorities, he highlighted congestion, cost of living, crime, and anti-Semitism as focal points.
“We have all the ingredients to make this city one of the best in the world — the best city to raise a family, build a business and realize our potential,” Bradford said. “But right now we’re neglecting the basic things that really play a big role in our quality of life. I want this to be a city we can be proud of again.”
He has also been outspoken in his criticism of the current administration, taking aim at Chow’s decision not to sit on the police headquarters, her declaration of a “genocide in Gaza” last year, and the 25 percent property tax increase that occurred during her tenure.
What Lies Ahead
With the October 26 election approaching, both campaigns face critical months ahead. Chow will need to address widespread dissatisfaction on key quality-of-life issues while defending her record in office. Bradford, meanwhile, must continue building on his momentum and converting undecided voters into committed supporters.
Mainstreet Research’s findings are based on a survey conducted June 12–18, 2026, among a sample of 1,157 adults living in Toronto. The survey carries a margin of error of ±2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
