Canada’s Former Chief Trade Negotiator Doubts Tariff Deal Before U.S. Midterms
Steve Verheul, Canada’s former chief trade negotiator, says he does not expect Ottawa to reach a tariff deal with Washington before the United States holds its midterm elections in the fall.
Speaking at an event for Bank of Montreal clients, Verheul outlined the trade outlook ahead of July 1, when the official review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is set to begin. He noted that while a brief window may exist before the midterms during which the U.S. government could seek a negotiating win, he believes it is more likely that talks will stretch into next year.
No ‘Good Deal’ Yet on the Table
Verheul expressed skepticism about the progress of current does not think anything close to a favorable deal for Canada has been presented so far. He also raised questions about whether the trade agreements other countries have already signed with the United States will prove durable over time.
Lessons from NAFTA Renegotiation
Verheul brings significant experience to his assessment. He led Canada’s negotiating team during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, giving him deep insight into the dynamics of high-stakes trade diplomacy with Washington.
Existing Agreement Still Offers Protection
Despite his cautious outlook, Verheul pointed to one encouraging sign: the current trade agreement continues to shield most Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs. He suggested this indicates the deal still delivers meaningful benefits to the United States, which could provide a foundation for future negotiations.
As the July 1 review date approaches, Canadian exporters and policymakers will be watching closely to see whether the upcoming trade talks yield progress or extend well into 2027.
